As the Premier League season enters its final weeks, the competition for spots in European tournaments remains fiercely contested. While the title race has concluded with Liverpool securing their 20th top-flight title, several teams remain locked in a tight battle for qualification. They are competing for spots in the lucrative Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
The outcome of domestic and continental cup competitions will also influence which clubs earn the coveted places for the next campaign.
Navigating the Top Five Race
The Premier League has earned an additional Champions League spot for the 2025-26 season due to strong European performances. As a result, the top five finishers will secure a place in the competition.
As things stand, Arsenal sits second with 68 points and a +33 goal difference. Newcastle United occupies third with 66 points and a +23 goal difference, while Manchester City is fourth on 65 points with a +24 goal difference. Chelsea and Aston Villa are tied on 63 points, sitting fifth and sixth, respectively. However, Chelsea holds a significant advantage in goal difference, with +19 compared to Villa’s +7.
Manchester City, despite winning four straight league titles previously, is currently fighting to remain in the Champions League spots.
Fans tracking the evolving odds and analytics for this top-five battle can find real-time insights on platforms like FanDuel EPL soccer. These platforms frequently update projections based on recent performances and injuries.
Aston Villa’s European Aspirations
Aston Villa, having finished fourth in the previous season to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 1982, entered the 2024-25 campaign looking to build on that success. Although their Champions League hopes appeared slim just weeks prior, a series of crucial victories has propelled Unai Emery’s squad back into contention.
They currently sit sixth with 63 points and have recently shown strong form with four wins in their last five matches. Betting odds reflect their chances, with Sky Bet offering 4/1 for a top-four finish (20% implied probability) and 11/10 for a top-five finish (47.62% implied probability, 42.49% Opta probability).
Bolstering the Roster
Aston Villa actively reinforced their squad during the January transfer window, bringing in five players to support their European push. Notable attacking additions included Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio on loan, alongside Donyell Malen acquired for £21m plus add ons. The defense was strengthened with the loan signing of Axel Disasi and the permanent transfer of Andres Garcia for approximately £6m.
These moves were funded by significant player sales, including Jhon Duran’s £71m transfer to Al-Nassr and Diego Carlos’s £8.5m move to Fenerbahce.
Key Contributors
Several players have been crucial for Aston Villa throughout the season. Ollie Watkins remains a primary threat, having scored 16 Premier League goals and provided seven assists so far this season.
Youri Tielemans has stepped up as the main playmaker, leading the team with 60 chances created and sitting joint top with 16 big chances created, translating to seven assists. Morgan Rogers, a January arrival, has quickly made an impact, contributing eight goals and nine assists this season. Lucas Digne has also been important in defense, averaging 2.48 tackles per game.
Other Clubs in the Mix
Beyond the leading pack, other teams retain hopes of securing a European berth. Nottingham Forest currently sits seventh with 62 points and a +12 goal difference after 36 matches.
They had a remarkable season trajectory at one point, eyeing Champions League qualification, but their recent form has dipped, registering only one win in their last five outings. Brentford is also in the conversation, positioned eighth with 55 points.
Their recent performance has been strong, highlighted by four wins in their last five games, though they will need specific cup results to potentially boost their chances of qualifying for a European spot. Brighton and Bournemouth are also close in points, on 55 and 53 respectively after 36 games.
The Influence of Cup Finals
The results of various cup competitions will significantly impact the final European picture. An English club is guaranteed to win the Europa League, as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are set to meet in the final. The winner will qualify for the Champions League, adding a sixth potential English team to the competition.
Newcastle United has already secured at least a Conference League spot by winning the Carabao Cup; if they qualify for the Champions League or Europa League via their league position, that Conference League spot will transfer to the highest-placed Premier League team not yet qualified for Europe.
The FA Cup final between Manchester City and Crystal Palace on May 17 could also create a knock-on effect; if City wins and finishes in the top six, the Europa League spot tied to the FA Cup winner will pass to the seventh-placed league team.
The Stakes for the Final Games
With several teams tightly bunched in the standings, every remaining point carries major implications for European qualification. Goal difference—crucial in any tiebreaker—is especially important for clubs like Aston Villa, who trail rivals such as Chelsea and Nottingham Forest in that metric. Recent form adds another layer of intrigue, with Villa and Brentford surging while Forest stumbles. As the Premier League season nears its end, the race for European spots promises high-stakes drama. With standings, goal difference, and cup results all in play, the final whistle could determine everything.